Nikon in 2018?
I posted this earlier today on the DPR forum but thought it might make a good post. So here are my speculative thoughts for Nikon in 2018.
When I got back into photography I was presented the option of the J5 or a D5300. To much surprise from others, I opted for the J5. I did a lot of traveling and spent a lot of time outdoors. The J5 fit the bill perfectly for that part of my life and packed well on a motorcycle and kayak too. For some reason I still grab for the J5 over my DSLR’s for the days I am going out, not planning to shoot, but there is that little voice in the back of my head saying “Take a camera!”
Nikon has done mirrorless!
Nikon has learned a lot from the success and failures of the N1 line. The flip screen for the D500 and D850 design came from the J5. What I fear with the slowly impending death of the N1 line is that some of will loose this spectrum of size and functionality (limited as it may be). Fears aside, we do know N1 is being killed off since the factory shut down. We also know the D3400 and D5600 did not get upgraded to Expeed 5, they were a minor and somewhat of a back slide refresh. This makes since if they need to keep this area some what fresh yet cutting production costs.
I would probably speculate that if/when Nikon drops an entry level mirrorless it will replace N1, D3xxx, and D5xxx lineups. 1 new camera replaces 5 and they now are in the APS-C mirorrless market. I don’t think Nikon will make anything off the bat that will compete with the the D850 or D5. That puts whatever FF mirrorless at the end of the FF lineup, D610 replacement? I don’t think they would kill the D750 off for a mirrorless either. I think we may see and upgrade to put it between the D500 and D850. That would give them 5 DSLR’s in the EXPEED 5 family and 2 new mirrorless thus cutting down on a wide range of cameras and production costs.
New Nikon lens mount?
Nikon now needs a new lens mount. We don’t need or want it but Nikon will if they want to make any money in the lens market. The F mount market is so saturated now with old Nikkor and 3rd party lenses. Sigma and Tamron have been putting a huge dent in new lens sales taking away that market share from Nikon. Nikon tried to push this in the low end DX field with no native support for older lenses or AFFT. Tamron and Sigma fired back with docks giving you more control than Nikon’s AFFT. Heck, Cannon at least gives you 2 points of adjustment. I’m pretty sure Nikon will embrace Apple’s approach on hardware more so now than ever moving forward.
Anywho, this is just a bunch of speculation at this point. Trying to figure out what Nikon is going to do is like predicting the path of a hurricane…. you don’t truly know until after it has happened.